Editorial
The Russian war on Ukraine is devastating for the people of Ukraine. Still, the combined economic consequences of the war and the sanction regime imposed by Western powers are also felt in the regions where PREVEX is working. The Western Balkans, the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel have been struggling with indirect economic Covid-19 effects since the pandemic started. The social and economic consequences of these are now exacerbated by the effects of the war and the sanctions that followed. The price of important commodities such as gas and gasoline, food and energy are skyrocketing with the consequences that this has for people’s livelihood. According to a recent UN report, as many as 1.7 billion people are ‘highly exposed’ to the cascading effects of Russia’s war on global food, energy and finance systems. It is clear that this has potentially destabilising impacts due to social and economic unrest.
What implications this will have for the spread of violent extremism and the resilience of local communities in the Western Balkans, the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel is still unclear. However, what is clear from the conversations that PREVEX researchers have had with people in these regions is that in most cases (with the Western Balkans as a possible exception), this is not seen as a war that concerns them. But many people in the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel worry greatly that they will have to suffer high economic consequences that easily could spill over to riots and even armed conflict that will play into the agendas of actors with violent extremist agendas. North Africa and the Middle East countries are large wheat consumers and they normally get almost all of this consumption covered by imports from Russia and Ukraine. Farmers in the Sahel will not afford artificial fertilisers in the coming season as global prices have reached new and unprecedented levels since many of the factors of production needed to produce this type of fertiliser normally would come from Russia. Local markets that are the most efficient way of distributing food and thereby also making it possible for farmers to gain a small surplus may grind to a halt due to similarly high gasoline prices.
Thus, while what exactly will be the outcome of this where and why is still unclear, what is clear is that one of the few groups that could benefit from all of this are those that favour a radical and often violent reordering of society. As livelihoods deteriorate, people living in environments that already are conducive to violent extremism will add another set of grievances to those they already had. This means that people who already had very good reasons for being angry will have even more. Thus, something is likely going to crack, and one would be ill-advised to think that their anger would be directed at President Putin and Russia. The consequences of the war in Ukraine and the sanction regime imposed by Western powers is therefore something that the countries of Europe and the European Union should be concerned about. Currently, most European powers seem to believe that the rest of the world is firmly behind the sanctions. That is not the case, for the reasons mentioned above, and Europe needs to face up to this and fine-tune policies to shield the poor and vulnerable from the worst economic effects of the war and the sanctions. If not, various types of violent extremism could become even more manifest in the European neighborhood with the consequences this could have for new waves of refugees towards Europe that nobody believes will get the same treatment as those from Ukraine.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
PREVEX events
PREVEX at the MERI Forum 2022
On 31 October – 2 November 2022, the MERI Forum 2022 was held in Erbil, Iraq. PREVEX kicked off the forum with a panel entitled Prevention of Violent Extremism in the Middle East, addressing the issue of violent extremism in the region. PREVEX was represented by Senior Researcher Kari Osland (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) and Kamaran Palani (Middle East Research Institute), accompanied by Amjed Rasheed (Open Think Tank) and Adam Ravnkilde (EU Advisory Mission in Iraq). The panel was moderated by PREVEX Principal Investigator Morten Bøås (NUPI). Find more information about the event here.
PREVEX at Insaniyyat Forum Tunis 2022
On 20-24 September 2022, Insaniyyat – the International Forum for Humanities and Social Sciences – took place in Tunis, bringing together more than 1300 researchers, academics and artists from 35 countries from the Maghreb, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. PREVEX joined forces with sister projects CONNEKT and PAVE in a panel, where experts from each of the three projects provided their insights in both Arabic and English. PREVEX was represented by PI and Research Professor Morten Bøås. Read more about the event here.
PREVEX at EISA’s Pan-European Conference on International Relations (PEC) 2022
On 1-4 September 2022, EISA’s Pan-European Conference on International Relations (PEC) 2022 was held in Athens, Greece. On 3 September, PREVEX researchers organized a panel titled Violent extremism, drivers and curtailers of “crises” in the EU neighbourhood, shedding light on the complex interactions between violent extremism, its alleged drivers, and its countermeasures. Presenters included PI Morten Bøås (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Norway), Gilad Ben-Nun (University of Leipzig, Germany), Luca Raineri (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, SSSA, Italy), Djallil Lounnas (Al Akhawayn University, Morocco), Alessio Iocchi (University of Naples l’Orientale, DAAM, Italy) and Sejla Pehlivanovic (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Norway). Panel Chair was Francesco Strazzari from SSSA. Read more about the event here.
Arendalsuka 2022: Most people are not radicalised
Arendalsuka took place on 15-19 August 2022, which is the largest political gathering in Norway held annually since 2012. PREVEX organised an event, titled Most people do not get radicalised, shedding light on various factors influencing different communities’ resilience against radicalisation and violent extremism. The PREVEX-researchers Morten Bøås (PI and Professor) and Kari Osland (Senior Researcher, NUPI) shared findings from their research on the Sahel, the Middle East and the Balkans. David Hansen (Deputy Head, OsloMet and Researcher, KRUS) and Sveinung Sandberg (Professor, University of Oslo) commented on these findings and related them to their own research. Read more about the event here.
Brown Bag Lunch with CONNEKT and PAVE: Impacts of the war in Ukraine on the Balkans and the MENA region
On 27 June 2022, PREVEX together with PAVE and CONNEKT organised a Brown Bag Lunch discussion at the European Peacebuilding Liaison Office (EPLO) in Brussels, Belgium. The event, titled Impacts of the war in Ukraine on radicalisation and violent extremism in the Balkans and the Middle East and North Africa, gathered the coordinators of the three Horizon 2020-funded projects PREVEX, CONNEKT and PAVE to present the results of their respective research on the drivers of radicalisation and violent extremism. PREVEX was represented by PI Professor Morten Bøås. Read more from the discussion here.
Event: H2020 Science-to-Policy
Later the same day, a meeting was held in the European Parliament in Brussels, co-organized between PREVEX, PAVE and CONNEKT. Aware of the need to bridge science and policy-making, the participants discussed with EU policy officers on the issues tackled by the projects, including radicalisation, violent extremism, and prevention in the MENA and the Balkan region. The event was held at the European Parliament and hosted by Ernest Urtasun, Member of the European Parliament, and moderate by Roger Albinyana, Managing Director of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed). PREVEX was represented by Research Professor and PI Morten Bøås. Read more about the meeting here.
Podcast: Bridging or Dividing People?
13-17 June 2022, NUPI and Atlantic Initiative researchers met for field research and recording of a podcast in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We visited the cities of Sarajevo, Mostar and Trebinje, and talked to local stakeholders about the issues of radicalization and violent extremism, as well as local factors of resilience, in the country. Listen to the podcast here.
Event: CEPS Ideas Lab 2022
On 1 June 2022, the CEPS’ annual flagship event, the Ideas Lab, was organized in Brussels, Belgium. PREVEX had a panel entitled Violent extremism in enabling environments. Why local resilience is more robust than we think and how we can go about supporting it, where Research Professor at NUPI and PI of PREVEX, Morten Bøås and Professor at the University of Sarajevo, Edina Becirevic shared some of the main findings from the research done in the PREVEX project. Francesca Pavearini, Policy Specialist, DG NEAR from the European Commission, commented on these findings and Steven Blockmans, Director of Research at CEPS and WP4-leader, moderated the session. A video from the session can be found here.
PREVEX Workshop in Copenhagen
On 4-5 May 2022, the WP leaders met in Copenhagen at the University of Copenhagen to discuss the forthcoming edited volume that will systematize the PREVEX knowledge base and lessons learned towards the end of the project. The importance of co-production of knowledge and synergies across the Consortium was strongly emphasized, with some valuable and fruitful discussions on these matters. Towards the end of the two-day workshop, we concluded with our main outputs and set the objectives for the finalization of the project’s deliverables. Read more about the workshop here.
H2020 Sister Projects Research Symposium
23 February 2022, a meeting in Paris was held, co-organized between PREVEX, PAVE and CONNEKT. The purpose was to exchange preliminary research findings, discuss commonalities and differences between the three projects, and explore avenues for further cooperation and future coordinated policy engagement. You can read more about the meeting here.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Events organized by others
CERIS FCT Workshop in Brussels
On 29 November, the Community for European Research and Innovation for Security (CERIS) Workshop on Radicalisation took place in Brussels, Belgium. The event brought together practitioners, local authorities, policymakers and researchers to discuss the latest insights and lessons drawn from EU-funded projects related to radicalisation. PREVEX, represented by PI Morten Bøås (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs), was featured in a panel on Geographical Factors and Approaches. Other panellists included Lurdes Vidal from our sister project CONNEKT (Barcelona), Hisham Hellyer from GREASE (Brussels) and Francesca Pavarini from DG NEAR (Brussels). The panel was moderated by Maria Fernandez from DG INTPA (Brussels). Find more information about the event here.
4th General Conference on Organised Crime
On 4-6 July, the Sant’Anna School organized – in partnership with the University of Pisa and the Scuola Normale Superiore – the 4th General Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on Organised Crime (SGOC). The conference featured a panel titled The Crime-Terror Nexus Reloaded? An Appraisal of the Debate in North Africa and the Sahel, with the participation of PREVEX researchers Djallil Lounnas (Al Akhawayn University) among the speakers and Luca Raineri (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies – SSSA) as chair and discussant. A link to the conference can be found here.
Sahel: développement, gouvernance et droits humains pour la sécurité des populations
On 27 and 28 June, Luca Raineri (SSSA) was invited to participate in a conference in Nouakchott (Mauritania), titled Sahel: Développement, gouvernance et droits humains pour la sécurité des populations. The conference was organized by the S&D group of the EU Parliament, the Government of Mauritania, and the NGOs Fight Impunity and No Peace without Justice, with the participation of the EU Special Representative for the Sahel, Emanuela del Re, and under the high patronage of the President of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Mohamed Ould El-Ghazaouani. Raineri delivered a presentation discussing the interactions between violent extremism and climate change. More information about the event can be found here (in French).
Jihadism, Conflict and Governance in the Sahel: Taking stock of a decade of crisis
On 4 April, Luca Raineri (SSSA) was invited to a symposium at the University of Florida (Gainsville) titled Jihadism, Conflict and Governance in the Sahel: Taking stock of a decade of crisis, featuring distinguished scholars from America, Africa, and Europe. Based on findings from the PREVEX report on the Sahel and the Maghreb region, Raineri delivered a presentation on Hybrid governance and the non/rise of jihadism in the Sahel: The view from Agadez.
Senior Course 140: First edition of the Africa Seminar at NDC
Luca Raineri (SSSA) was invited to the NATO Defense College in Rome to deliver a presentation on terrorism and radicalisation in the Sahel, in the framework of a NATO Regional Cooperation Course (in March) and subsequently to the Senior Course (in May). More information about the Senior Course event can be found here.
Seminar: Rethinking Stabilisation
29 March 2022, PI Morten Bøås (NUPI) spoke at a seminar initiated by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs entitled Rethinking Stabilisation. Bøås participated in the panel Cross-cutting stabilisation in new geopolitical realities, contributing on the basis of PREVEX research findings from the Sahel. Read more about the seminar here.
10th Meeting of the Special Envoys for the Sahel
16-17 March 2022, the 10th Meeting of the Special Envoys for the Sahel took place in Casa Africa, in Las Palmas de Gran Canarias (Spain). Francesco Strazzari (SSSA) was invited to give an introduction and contributed with an analysis of challenges for democracy in the region. Please find more information about this here.
PREVEX at the Fragility Forum 2022: Development and Peace in Uncertain Times
8 March 2022, PREVEX-researchers Morten Bøås (NUPI) and Abdoul Wahab Cissé (ARGA) contributed to the World Bank’s Fragility Forum in Washington with the panel: ‘Can Community Resilience be Strengthened Amidst Multiple Fragility Risks? Lessons from the Sahel and Central Asia’. You can find more information about the event here.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
D2.3 Working paper on conceptual, theoretical and methodological issues arising out of the project.
D8 Background study entitled ‘DOs and DON’Ts in the EU’s PVE Measures: Balkans, Maghreb/ Sahel & Middle East’, presents research findings of a cross-societal comparison of PREVEX-related regions, with the aim of providing ideas about what has been successful and what has proven detrimental to the EU’s preventing violent extremism (PVE) efforts. Find the report here.
D8.1 Policy brief comparing the EU and other stakeholders’ prevention strategy towards violent extremism in the Balkans and the broader MENA region. Find the policy brief here.
D8.2 Working paper on a comparison of ‘enabling environments’, drivers and occurrence/non-occurrence of violent extremism in the Balkans and the MENA region. A link to the working paper can be found here.
D8.3 Policy brief summarising the lessons learned from assessing the EU’s measures to prevent violent extremism in a comparative perspective. Please find the policy brief here.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Other publications by PREVEX researchers
In October, PREVEX researchers Dlawer Ala’Aldeen (Middle East Research Institute) and Kamaran Palani (Middle East Research Institute), together with Khogir Wirya published a research paper entitled Violent Extremism in Mosul & the Kurdistan Region: Context, Drivers, and Public Perception. The paper examines the public perceptions of the presence, root causes, and drivers of VE, and perceptions of the impact of ongoing governmental and non-governmental initiatives for preventing VE. Download the article here.
In October, PREVEX researcher Erik Skare (Sciences Po) published an article in the European Journal of International Security. The article, entitled Staying safe by being good? The EU’s normative decline as a security actor in the Middle East, delves into the European Union’s CT/PvE policies in the Middle East over the last decade. By analysing the efforts of the EU in MENA to counter terrorism and prevent violent extremism (CT/PvE), Skare demonstrates that the Union has moved towards a ‘security first’ centred approach in the region. Read more and find the article here.
PREVEX researcher Georges Fahmi (European University Institute) together with Nouran Ahmed published a working paper entitled ‘From radicalisation to violence: the factors shaping Egyptian radical youths’ decisions whether to take up arms’, addressing the question of why some Egyptian youth decided to take up arms while others did not during the Egyptian revolution. Read more and find the working paper here.
In March 2022, Predrag Petrović (Belgrade Center for Security Policy) together with Marija Ignjatijevic (BCSP) published a research report entitled ‘Resilience to Violent Extremism in Serbia: The Case of Sanjak’. Based on extensive field research in Serbia, the report identifies cases of violent extremism and aim to understand key resilience factors to it, all in the Serbian region of Sanjak. Find the report here.
Petrovic (BCSP) and Ignjatijevic (BCSP) also published a research report entitled ‘Migrants are leaving, but hatred remains: The anti-migrant extreme right in Serbia’, in which the authors analyse the main actors behind broader anti-immigrant narratives in Serbia, and which mechanisms and channels are used by right-wing groups to attract attention. Read the report here.
In March, shortly after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Professor Ulf Engel (ULEI) from WP8 published a Blog Series on Africa and the Russian Aggression against Ukraine. The blogs, in which he analyse how African states have responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the economic consequences of the war for Africa, can be found here.
In March, Luca Raineri (SSSA) together with Edoardo Baldaro published a co-edited volume in Italian titled Jihad in Africa: Terrorismo e Controterrorismo in Sahel (Bologna: il Mulino), featuring contributions by PREVEX associates including Alessio Iocchi and Laura Berlingozzi. The book has already made the object of presentations in Naples (May 2022), in Pisa (May 2022, in the framework of a day-long workshop dedicated to the Sahel, in presence of the Mayor and the Sultan of Agadez), and in Perugia (June 2022, in the framework of the annual convention of the Italian Society of Political Science). A link to the book can be found here.
Raineri (SSSA) also published a research paper for IAI (Istituto Affari Internazionali) in March, titled Drought, Desertification and Displacement: Re-Politicising the Climate-Conflict Nexus in the Sahel. A link to the paper can be found here.
A book chapter was published in the Routledge Handbook of EU-Middle East Relations by Djallil Lounnas (Al Akhawayn University) from WP6 with the title Moderate Islamist Parties in the MENA Region and Europe: Between the Democracy-Human Rights and the Stability-Security Nexus. For more information, click here.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870724.
